建三江分局用水结构演变及其驱动机制研究

Study on Evolution and Its Driving Mechanism of Water Utilization Structure in Jiansanjiang Branch Bureau

用水结构的合理确定与科学预测是制定水资源开发利用规划的前提和基础,对于实现区域水资源合理配置、社会经济协调发展具有重要意义。基于1999—2010年的黑龙江省建三江农垦水资源年鉴中的用水数据,引入信息熵的方法对建三江分局用水结构发展的趋势进行了探讨;同时运用因子分析法对用水结构的驱动因子进行筛选,分析了用水结构变化的主要驱动力。结果表明:建三江分局的用水结构特点是以农业用水为主,工业及生活用水比例很小。1999—2002年,用水总量变化不明显,2003年以来总用水量持续增长,农业、生活用水比例有小幅度的增加,工业用水比例基本稳定;在这12a里用水结构信息熵总体呈上升趋势;因子分析结果显示,社会经济因子、自然环境因子是建三江分局用水结构演变的主要驱动力。

The rational determination and scientific prediction of water consumption structure are the basis for drawing up the plan of water resources development and utilization,and it is significant for achieving the appropriate allocation of regional water resources and coordinated development of social economy.Based on data from 1999 to 2010 achieved from water resources almanac of Jiansanjiang Agricultural Reclamation Region of Heilongjiang Province,discussion of development trend of water consumed structure of Jiansanjiang Branch Bureau was conducted by using information entropy.Meanwhile,the driving factors of water consumed structure were filtered by factor analysis,and the principal driving force which caused the change of water consumption structure was analyzed.The results indicated that agricultural water occupied the dominant position,and industrial and domestic water accounted for a small proportion in water consumption structure of Jiansanjiang Branch Bureau.Total water consumption changed faintly from 1999 to 2002,but continued to grow since 2003,at the same time,agricultural and domestic water increased with a small proportion,industrial water was basically stable.Overall information entropy of water utilization structure showed upward trend in the 12 years（1999—2010）.Factor analysis results represented socio-economic factor and natural environment factor is principal driving force of water utilization structure evolution in Jiansanjiang Branch Bureau.