美国对华战略(1990-2004年)——基于国际冲突与合作网络的量化研究

US Foreign Strategy toward China 1990-2004:A Quantitative Research Based on International Conflict and Cooperation Network

作者利用相互依赖理论,在国际冲突与合作网络中提出了国家之间复合相互依赖的新度量和源于不对称复合相互依赖的四种国家权力(直接弱权、直接强权、间接弱权、间接强权)及其度量。根据对这些权力的定性及定量研究结果,作者阐明美国寻求建立自身优势主导地位的全球战略目标的实质是追求美国自身的网络地位和网络整体的秩序性,虽然1990-2004年间美国的全球战略取得了明显的实效,但其进一步发展却面临系统性困境:无法直接调控其他国家之间的关系和无法阻止他国在外交中实行低程度同配或异配。在此基础上,作者进一步从网络角度分析了全球战略大局下美国对华遏制与纳入的核心战略意图,阐明中国建立在独立自主的和平外交政策上的国际战略使美国对中国的遏制与纳入是困难的、效果是有限的。因此,从网络角度来看,大国战略竞争的本质是边权之争、权力三角之争,不同程度的同配性是大国战略竞争的手段和必然结果,而归根结底中美战略博弈的实质是生产力发展水平的竞争。

Drawing on theory ofinterdependence, the authors propose a new measure of complex interdependence between nations, and four kinds of power concepts (direct weak power, direct strong power, indirect weak power, and indirect strong power) together with their measurements rooted in asymmetric interdependence in the frame ofinternational conflicts and cooperation network. Based on qualitative and quantitative analysis,the authors argue that the essence of the U.S. global strategy is to pursue its network position and the whole network order. Although its global strategy achieved actual results in 1990-2004, its further development faces systematic predicament. Following an analysis of the core strategic intent of the U.S. foreign strategy toward China, the authors demonstrate that China’s international strategy based on independent foreign policy of peace makes it difficult for the U.S. to implement its containment and inclusion strategy with limited results. Finally, the authors conclude that, from the network perspective, the essence of competitions among great powers is to compete for edge weight and power triangles, and the essence of US-China strategic competition lies in the development level of productive forces.