基于自然灾害系统理论的辽宁省玉米干旱风险分析

Analysis on drought risk of maize based on natural disaster system theory in Liaoning province

为了减轻旱灾对辽宁地区玉米生产的影响,该文通过对辽宁省23个气象站点46 a气象数据和气象站点所在县玉米产量、种植面积的分析,用实际干旱发生频率、农业气象干旱发生频率、玉米生产相对暴露率和单产水平等4个因素构建了辽宁地区玉米干旱风险指数,用社会科学统计程序(statistical program for social sciences)和地理信息系统(geographic information system)对辽宁地区玉米干旱进行了风险分析和风险区划。结果表明,辽宁省有30%的站点处于玉米干旱较高或高风险区,主要分布于辽西山地丘陵和辽南沿海地区;玉米干旱中等风险区主要分布在辽西走廊和辽中平原及渤海湾附近地区;玉米干旱低风险区主要分布在辽东山地丘陵地带。经检验50%以上站点的干旱风险指数与玉米相对气象产量显著相关。所构建的辽宁地区玉米干旱风险指数能客观地反应干旱对玉米生产的影响。该研究为玉米避灾和减灾管理提供科学依据。

In order to reduce the effect of drought on maize production,taking Liaoning province as the study area,maize drought risk index was built by 4 factors,including the actual drought occurred frequency,the agro-meteorological drought occurred frequency,the maize relative exposure rate and maize production per unit area based on the 46 years daily meteorological data,as well as the yield and cultivated area of maize at 23 meteorological sites.Using the SPSS（statistical program for social sciences）and GIS（geographic information system）,the maize drought risk zone was analyzed on the basis of the maize drought risk index in Liaoning province.The results showed that 30% of the meteorological sites were in high-risk areas and mainly distributed in western Liaoning hilly and coastal areas in southern Liaoning;the drought medium-risk zone was mainly distributed in western corridor,Liaozhong plain and vicinity of Bohai bay;the drought low-risk zone was distributed in Liaodong mountainous areas.And then,the relationship between drought risk index and maize yield at more than 50% of the sites were significantly correlated.The index of maize drought risk constructed in this paper objectively reflected the effects of drought on maize production.This study provides a scientific foundation for maize disaster prevention and disaster management.