贸易对我国二氧化硫污染的影响——基于投入产出的分析

TRADE'S IMPACT ON SO2 POLLUTION OF CHINA——Based on Input-output Model

本文利用1997年、2002年和2007年的投入产出表和二氧化硫排放的统计数据,分析了贸易对中国二氧化硫污染的影响,得到以下结论:第一,研究期内进口和出口含硫量都在迅速增长,出口含硫量始终大于进口含硫量。第二,结构分解显示规模效应始终占主导地位。第三,出口产品并没有比内需产品包含更多的污染,是我国巨额的贸易顺差导致了污染出口的顺差。本文认为,在短期内要改变"奖出限入"的贸易政策,调整进出口结构;在长期内则要调整产业结构,同时发展绿色能源,提高能源利用效率。

This paper used the input-output tables and SO2 emission data of 1997,2002 and 2007 to estimate the trade＇s impact on SO2 pollution in China.The results showed that,total sulfur content in imports and exports were growing rapidly,and total sulfur content in exports always exceeded that in imports.Structural decomposition of SO2 emissions indicated that the scale effect was dominant,and largely offset by technical effect.China＇s huge trade surplus,rather than the trade itself,led to China＇s export surplus of pollution.Finally,this paper provided some policy recommendations.