东盟区域经济一体化——基于边境效应的实证分析

REGIONAL ECONOMIC INTEGRATION OF ASEAN——An Empirical Analysis Based on National Border Effect

本文通过计算边境效应来测定自由贸易区与其他国家(地区)的贸易程度。通过2000—2009年这10年的面板数据,在理论上验证了以下结论:东盟区域内部各国之间的贸易壁垒和边境效应普遍降低;东盟作为一个整体对于世界其他主要贸易国家的边境效应却在不断提升,这反映出东盟的一体化进程在不断提高。此外,在本文的研究中还发现另外一个值得关注的情况:与其他自由贸易区的国家同质化结构不同,东盟区域内既有发展程度较高的国家,也有依然被联合国定义为贫穷、欠发达的国家,这样的国家结构必然会造成贸易层面上的分化,折射出东盟在内部融合的过程中出现的一些不协调和分化。

By using the national border effect to determine the trading extent of free trade zones and other countries or regions,and studying 10 years of cross-sectional data from 2000 to 2009,this paper verified that trade barriers and national border effects had generally decreased between the countries of the ASEAN regional.However,ASEAN,as a whole,had continued to enhance the national border effect with other major trading countries of the world.Further,they could fully reflect that integration process of ASEAN had been improving.In addition,this paper discovered that,unlike homogenization of national structure in other free trade region,the ASEAN region included developed countries,such as Singapore and Thailand,and developing countries,such as Myanmar,Cambodia.Such kind of national structure would definitely lead to differentiation of trade.The situation had reflected disharmony and differentiation inside the ASEAN.