自然灾害脆弱性曲线研究进展

A Review on Development of Vulnerability Curve of Natural Disaster

在全球变化与全球化背景下自然灾害风险逐年增大,灾害评估就成为风险防范的重要基础。灾害评估包括灾情估算与风险评估2个方面,而脆弱性分析是把灾害与风险研究紧密联系起来的重要桥梁。脆弱性曲线作为定量精确评估承灾体脆弱性的方法,近年来在多领域被广泛运用,成为灾情估算、风险定量分析以及风险地图编制的关键环节。从致灾因子角度综述脆弱性曲线的研究进展,重点阐述基于灾情数据、已有曲线、调查和模型的脆弱性曲线构建。研究表明脆弱性曲线构建由单曲线向多曲线库、单一参数向综合参数、单一方法向多领域综合应用发展,具有综合化和精细化的趋势。进一步开展多领域、多方法综合脆弱性曲线研究,对灾损快速评估及风险评价,防灾减灾具有重要意义。

With the trend of global change and globalization in these decades,natural disaster risk is getting much more serious.As the foundation of the disaster risk prevention,disaster assessment is composed of loss estimate and risk analysis.The vulnerability analysis is an important component in disaster assessment,connecting analysis of hazard and risk.As the quantitative and accurate assessment means of vulnerability,the vulnerability curve has been widely used in disaster estimate,quantitative risk analysis and risk mapping.This paper briefly describes the research development of vulnerability curves of different hazards,emphasizing the method of building vulnerability curves based on disaster data,existing curve,investigation and model.The research shows that the researches′ focuses switch from the single curve to multi-curve database,from single parameter to synthesized parameters,and from single method to integrated method.Further development of vulnerability curve based on multi-discipline and multi-method will have the important impact on disaster estimate,risk analysis and disaster reduction.