用中尺度非静力模式制作北京气温和风预报

The Forecast of 2-m Temperature and 10-m Wind with Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Numerical Forecasting System

利用国家气象中心与北京市气象局联合开发的“北京地区中尺度数值天气预报业务系统”针对业务预报需要 ,开发了 2米温度、10米风的要素预报。通过近一年的预报效果检验表明 ,该系统不仅对一般性天气有比较好的预报效果 ,同时也可以预报出转折性的大风、升 (降 )温等天气过程。与 NCEP的 eta模式相比 ,该系统的温度预报误差与之基本相当 ,而风速预报误差略小于

For the prediction′s requirement,the forecast of 2 m temperature and 10 m wind in Beijing area were developed with a nonhydrostatic mesoscale numerical forecasting system,which is developed by the National Meteorological Center and Beijing Meteorological Bureau.Quantitative forecast validation results show that the system runs successfully not only in general forecast but also in special weather.It predicts daily variation of wind direction in Beijing area successfully.Compared with eta model of NCEP,system′s prediction errors of temperature are similar and errors of wind speed are better.