沙地草原牧户对气候变化适应性调查分析

Adaptation of Herdsmen in Sandy Grassland to Climate Changes

以内蒙古鄂尔多斯市杭锦旗为例,利用1960-2009年气象数据及牧户家庭调查问卷,研究当地气候变化情况及牧户家庭对气候变化及其影响的感知与应对策略。结果表明:过去50年中,该地区气温显著升高(P<0.01),气温变化曲线线性拟合倾向率为0.413℃.(10a)-1,降水总量呈降低趋势(P>0.05),降水量变化曲线线性拟合倾向率为-12.29mm.(10a)-1;牧户对气候变化的感知存在差异,对气温感知的准确度高于降水;极端天气灾害中,干旱和沙尘暴对牧户生产生活的影响最大;而牧户的适应措施以圈养、适量购买饲料和处理家畜为主;在现有草原政策实施过程中,牧户希望得到畜种改良、人工草地建植和防疫等方面的技术支持。

The perceptions and adaptation of herdsmen to climate change were analyzed using questionnaires and 50 years of climatic date in Hangjin Banner.Results showed that temperature in this area significantly increased in the past 50 years(P<0.01).The tendency ratio of annual temperature was 0.413℃·(10 a)-1.The precipitation was decreased(P>0.05).The perceptions of the herdsmen to climate change differed with different climate factors.The perception of the herdsmen was more sensitive to temperature than to precipitation.Herdsmen's lives were influenced by climate change and extreme climate events,particularly by drought and sand storm.Rearing in pens,buying forages or selling livestock were herdsmen's main strategies to adapt to climate events.Therefore,herdsmen hoped to obtain available techniques of breeding improvement,establishing artificial pastures and antiepidemic measures in order to execute present grassland policy.