流域系统动力学模型的全耦合问题研究进展

Progress on Unity Coupling Problems of Watershed System Dynamic Model

从系统分析的视角出发,对流域系统动力学建模过程、方法进行总结。综述了国内外系统动力学模型(简称SD模型)在社会经济发展与流域水资源承载力、流域水环境承载和流域水生态承载力耦合关系的研究。从简单的零维模型发展到复杂的社会经济综合模型和OO-SD模型(即Objective-Optimization SD模型),国内SD模型耦合关系研究主要集中在叶尔羌河、洱海、滇池等流域,SD模型在监测、数据共享和模型结构、参数选取和不确定性分析等方面还存在不足,有待改进。

From the perspective of system analyses in watershed system dynamic research,the process of system dynamic（SD）modeling and measure are summarized.SD model is formed in the application of coupling relation of population,resources and environment.Watershed system dynamic model has developed from zero direction models to Objective-Optimization system dynamic model（OO-SD Model）.Related researches in China are focused on coupling relation of Yerqiang River,Erhai Lake,Dianchi Lake and other watersheds.The lack of sufficient monitoring data for validation and insufficient consideration of uncertainties affect the coupling relation among watershed changes.Dealing with uncertainties and constructing watershed system dynamic model are available ways for overcoming the shortages.