基于FLAC^(3D)-RSM的采空区失稳概率分析及验证

Probability Analysis and Verification of Cavity Instability Based on FLAC^(3D)-RSM

针对某矿山开采后存在大量残留采空区容易导致安全生产事故的工程实际,为了准确判定这些采空区的稳定性情况,以该矿山54-6#采空区为例,运用Midas前处理功能生成网格模型导入到FLAC3D进行数值分析,并结合计算响应面法(RSM),对采空区发生失稳破坏的可能性进行综合分析,结果表明该采空区存在失稳风险。然后对该空区进行先后两次精密探测,将两次测量的空区模型进行差异分析,验证了数值分析和失稳概率分析结论的正确性。本文对矿山其他的残留采空区的稳定性的评价找到一种可靠方法,对矿山的安全生产具有一定的指导意义。

In view of the safety misadventure due to many residue mined-out cavities after mining in practical projects, the stability of cavities must be evaluated accurately. The cavities in 54-6^# mine were taken as an example in this study. Using the powerful preprocessing functions of Midas, the grid model was generated to be used in FLAG^3D for numerical analyses. Results show that there has a large tensile stress on both sides of the cavity. In view of this fact, with the response surface calculation method, the possibility of instability damage of the cavity is analyzed. It is shown that the cavity imposes the obvious instability risk. Then, the cavity model was measured twice, to validate the accuracy of the results and verify the conclusion of the numerical analysis and the instability probability analysis on the cavity. This paper provides a reliable evaluation method for the stability of mined-out cavities.