因果分析图和AHP法在翻车事故成因分析中的应用

Application of cause-effect diagram and AHP to analyze the rollover of traffic accidents causes

交通事故发生原因错综复杂,是多因素相互作用的结果,很难用一个数学模型来精确描述。交通事故成因分析,探寻交通事故发生规律,为公安交管部门制订预防对策,构筑事故预防体系提供理论依据。因果分析图方法分析交通事故的原因,具有直观、逻辑性强、因果关系明确等特点,能详尽分析事故发生的原因。层次分析法(AHP)能够将量化困难的复杂的定性问题在严格的数学运算上量化。将因果分析图和AHP法2种方法相结合,并应用于翻车事故的成因分析,找出交通事故发生原因的主要影响因素,为交通事故预防和处理提供科学依据。

The origin of traffic accidents is intricate and complicated, which are the results of the multiple factors interaction,and difficult to use mathematical models to describe accurately. The analysis of traffic accidents＇ origin and exploring the laws would provide a theoretical basis for the public security depart- ments to develop preventive measures and build up accident prevention system. To use the cause-effect dia- gram to analyze the reasons for traffic accidents is intuitive, logical and clear causal. It can also detailedly analyze the traffic accidents causes. AHP can quantify the complex and qualitative issues. We combined the cause-effect diagram and AHP,at the same time,applied them to analyze traffic accidents causes and tried to find out the main factors of traffic accident causes,which would provide a scientific basis for the accident prevention and treatment.