台湾IC封测发展趋势与职场实务训练之研究

Research on Development Trend of Taiwan IC Assembly and Test Industry and Work Place Practical Training

由于2010年第四季电子产品之上下游库存水平偏低,促使系统厂商持续补充零组件库存,积极向IC厂商拉货,2010年台湾IC设计、DRAM、封测产值皆为正增长,而其中以台湾IC设计产业产值提升最大,带动2010年第一季台湾半导体产业整体产值达11,998百万美元,较前季成长3%。展望2011年第三季,由于系统厂商普遍为下半年的旺季作准备,第二季台湾半导体产业产值持续呈季增长,预估增长幅度达7%,为12,884百万美元,其中以DRAM产值增长最大,主要因为台湾DRAM厂商持续提高产能利用率,且台湾DRAM产品持续转往高价的DDR3。展望2011年第三季,台湾IC设计厂商就接单状况来看,多数仍预期营收将较第一季增长,而目前各终端市场需求大致平稳,系统厂商普遍为下半年的旺季作准备;据此预估,台湾IC设计业在2011年第二季之产值可望持续增高,季增率为5.1%。虽然台湾IC设计业在2011年第一季产值增长超乎预期、第二季也将持续走高,但展望下半年,却出现能否维持增长步伐之疑虑。尤其是部分欧洲国家的债信问题,将对欧元区经济造成之冲击、是否蔓延至全球其它区域等,已成下半年全球半导体市况之最大变量。虽然台湾IC设计产业与欧洲消费市场并非高度相关,但因全球地区市场恐有连动效应,仍不免受到影响。再加上IC厂商在上半年之出货,有部分是因系统厂商看好2011年全年需求,在上述零组件供给紧俏的状况下,驱使其担心发生缺料,以提前备货作为因应。倘若终端需求不如预期,库存问题恐迟早发生,从而影响其第三季、甚至第四季的销售表现。因此,据此保守推估,预估台湾IC设计在2011年下半年的产值将与上半年相当、或仅微幅增长,且第三季的旺季效应恐将不若以往,季增率预估仅约3.5%。DRAM出货持续增加,带动上半年DRAM营收逐步上扬。由于DRAM价格已能让台湾DRAM厂商获利,且DRAM厂商皆乐观看待2011年的PC换机潮,因此部份台湾厂商持续增产DRAM。台湾晶圆代工产业在线人力明显不足,因此在人才招募不足情况下开始与临近大学合作校外实习,本研究乃希望从学生在IC封测产业实务训练过程研究其提升生产竞争力的可行性。

Because the stock of downstream and upstream electronic products in the fourth quarter of 2011 kept at a somewhat lower level,the system manufacturers were compelled to supplement the stock of spare part continually.In 2010 the output value of Taiwan IC design,DRAM and assembly and test industry all saw a growth,and among them the growth of design industry was the most dramatic,which had spurred the growth of semiconductor industry up to 11,998,000,000 US dollars in the first quarter of 2010,3% more than that in the preceding quarter.It was estimated that the output value of semiconductor industry would continue to grow in the third quarter of the year,at a rate of 7% and up to12,884,000,000 US dollars,as most of the suppliers were making ready for the next peak season.Because on one hand,the DRAM suppliers had enhanced continually its productivity and on the other hand,Taiwan DRAM product had been transferring to the high price DDR3,the output value of DRAM industry grew faster. Meanwhile,most IC design companies can expect considerable growth in turnover in the third quarter due to the large orders received,while the terminal market will witness a stable period as most system supplies stake on the peak season.Thus,it is estimated that output value of Taiwan IC design industry will continue to grow,at 5.1% for each quarter.Although output value of Taiwan IC design industry grows faster than it is anticipated in the first quarter,it will continue to rise in the second quarter.However,the question remains as to whether the growth can sustain to the next half year.What＇s more,the fact that the European sovereign debt crisis is certainly imposing the impact on the Eurozone economy and it is even likely to spread to other regions in the globe may become the major variables influencing the global semiconductor market climate.Although Taiwan IC design industry and Europe market are by no means highly related,but owing to the chain reaction,it still may unavoidably come under the influence.In addition,the increase of sales of IC products in the first half of the year was partly due to the system manufacturers＇ expectation on a rising demand of global market in the year and their worries over the shortage of supply,given the hot demand of the part components.Thus,if the terminal demands failed to live up to system manufacturers＇ expectation,the problems of overstock would arise sooner or later which apparently would affect the sales performance of the third and fourth quarter.Therefore,it is safe to say that the output value of IC design industry of Taiwai in the second half of the year would be comparable to that of the first half of the year or even better,but the peak season prosperity would not appear in the third quarter.And the rate of increase is estimated to be at only 3.5% quarterly.The increase of sales of DRAM had promoted the turnover of DRAM in the first half of year gradually.As the DRAM is lucrative,and moreover,the manufactures are optimistic about this surge of PC replacement,some Taiwan manufacturers are increasing the production of DRAM.Therefore,apparently there will be such a shortage of workforces in Taiwan semiconductor pure foundry industry that enterprises are considering working together with colleges to build off-campus internship base to train workforce.The paper sets out to discuss the feasibility of improving student＇s competitiveness by work place practical training with IC assembly and test industry.