我国行业水资源消耗的关联度分析

Linkage analysis of water use among industrial sectors in China

选取2007年相关数据进行整理分析,应用基于假设抽取法的水资源消耗产业关联度计量模型,比较各行业水资源的直接消耗和纵向集成消耗,定量测算出我国行业间水资源的流动转移情况.通过分析得到:不同行业的水资源直接消耗量与满足自身需求所需的水资源量有所差异,但是对于经济系统而言,所有行业水资源的直接消耗总量等于为满足最终需求所需的水资源总量,即水资源在经济系统的不同行业之间发生了转移;在经济系统中,农业、基础工业作为产业链上游行业将大量的水资源通过中间投入的方式转移到其下游行业中,轻工业、高科技工业等产业链下游行业的直接消耗的水资源无法满足自身需求,必须从其上游行业转移水资源;水资源从产业链的上游逐级向下游转移,维持着经济系统产品的生产与交换;如果行业的最终需求不变,单纯调整产业结构仅是将水资源消耗量大的行业进行区位或行业上的转移,而经济系统水资源消耗的总量并没有改变.本文通过定量化的方式来研究行业水资源消耗关联,初步揭示了水资源在行业间的消耗规律,能够为产业调整提供新视角,为产业结构调整政策提供更为科学的依据.

The aim of this paper was to study the behaviour of the productive sectors of the Chinese economy as direct and indirect consumers of water.Industrial water consumption linkages analysis was empolyed,based on hypothetical extraction method.By comparing the direct water consumption with vertical integrated water consumption based on the input-output data of water utilization in 2007 in China,direct water consumption of each sector was not equal to water required to meet final demand of itself.In view of the economy,the total of direct water consumption of all sectors was equivalent to the total of water required to meet final demand of themselves.Water resource transferred among productive sectors.In the supply-chain,upstream sectors such as agriculture and basic industry,met their final demand by the internal exchange of production,and transferred a large number of water resource to their downstream sectors by intermediate input.On the contrary,downstream sectors such as light industry and high-technology industry,transferred a great quantity of water resource from their upstream sectors,because their direct water consumption was unable to meet the final demand.In this way,water resource was transferred from upstream to downstream step by step to maintain the production and exchange in economy.If the final demand did not have a change,industrial restructuring was just to divert the sector with a high-water-consumption from a place to the other.Therefore,the total water consumption of the economy did not have a change.This paper revealed the regular of industrial water consumption so as to provide a fresh perspective of structure adjustment and more scientific basis of policy-making.