重复博弈与机制构建:两岸军事安全互信探析

Repeated Games and Mechanism Construction:A Research on Cross-Strait Confidence-Building of Military Security

军事安全互信是两岸关系和平发展的重要保障,也是两岸实现最终完全统一的重要途径。而军事安全互信的构建需要两岸通过重复博弈来逐步完成。重复博弈能够建立一种密集的互动关系并促使博弈策略更加趋于合作而不是对抗,从而推动博弈双方逐渐建立机制化、制度化、模式化的合作关系,这将对构建两岸军事安全互信助益良多。

The confidence-building of military security is not only the key guarantee for the peaceful development of Cross- Strait Relations but also the key condition for the realization of the Cross-Strait peaceful reunification. However, the construction of military security confidence-building demands bilateral repeated games in order to achieve the win-win situation. The Repeated Games can construct an intensive interactive relation and can make the game strategy more cooperative rather than antagonistic, thus motivating both players to build a mechanism, systematism and modular cooperative relation, which can benefit the construction of Cross-Strait military security confidence-building.