中国通货膨胀与相对价格可变性——基于面板数据的实证分析

On Inflation and Relative Price Variability in China——Based on an Empirical Analysis of Penal Data

本文构建关于通货膨胀与相对价格可变性(RPV)关系的动态面板数据模型,并估算了全国及各地区的通货膨胀率与RPV指标;通过面板单位根检验、面板协整检验和面板因果关系检验来判断通货膨胀与RPV两个变量的特性以及二者之间的长期均衡关系和异质因果关系;运用稳健的一步系统GMM估计方法估计本文所构建的理论模型并进行了稳健性检验。研究发现,通货膨胀对RPV呈现正向影响,这为通货膨胀通过相对价格可变性影响经济增长的渠道提供了经验支持;同时研究也证明经济过快增长和宽松的货币政策均会加剧RPV波动。

In this paper,first,we build a theoretical model of the relationship between inflation and RPV,and compute the index of inflation rate and RPV of the country and areas.Secondly,we estimate the characteristics of inflation and RPV,long-term balanced relationship and heterogeneity of causal relationship between inflation and RPV through panel unit root test,panel cointegration test and panel causality test.Finally we estimate the theoretical model of the paper by robust one step system GMM estimation method and make a test.The result shows that the impact of inflation on Relative Price Variability is positive,which provides an empirical support for the effect of inflation on the channel of economic growth through Relative Price Variability.And meanwhile it shows that rapid economic growth and loose monetary policy will exacerbate the fluctuation of Relative Price Variability.