工程项目风险模糊综合评价研究

Evaluation on project risk based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Method

为了对工程项目风险进行客观的评价,以方便投资方与施工企业进行有效的风险管理与控制,进而降低经济损失,针对工程项目风险评价的特点,从社会风险、经济风险、技术风险以及管理风险4个维度构建了工程项目风险评价指标体系,将工程项目风险定性评价转化为定量评价问题。利用集对分析和模糊综合评价的各自优势,采用集对分析确定各评价指标的权重,进而建立了工程项目风险模糊综合评价模型。通过具体实例说明集对分析与模糊综合评价相结合对工程项目风险评价的可行性。结果表明,将集对分析与模糊综合评价相结合对工程项目风险进行评价是完全可行的。

Assessing project risks objectively is useful for the investors and construction companies to make effective project risk management and control,so as to lower the economic loss.Firstly,we build projects risk evaluation index system from social risks,economic risks,technical risks and manage risk based on characteristics of the project risk assessment,therefore make the project risk evaluation from a qualitative assessment to a quantitative evaluation.Secondly,making use of the advantage of the set pair analysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,we determine index weights so as to build fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for the projects.A case is used to demonstrate the feasibility of the evaluation model that combines the set pair analysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.The results show that the evaluation of project risk based on set pair analysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is feasible.