一种人民币实际均衡汇率升值幅度预测方法

A forecasting method of appreciation amplitude of real equilibrium exchange rate of RMB

文章从贸易账户平衡角度构建了一个理论模型,采用《世界表6.3》所提供的2001—2007年世界各国(地区)汇率和购买力数据,运用面板数据模型分析人民币兑美元的实际均衡汇率长期走势和人民币兑美元的实际汇率升值幅度。分析结果表明,升值将是人民币实际汇率的长期趋势,未来10a内人民币实际均衡汇率平均每年将升值2.04%。

A theoretical model is built from the perspective of trade account balance, adopting the world＇s exchange rates and purchasing power data during 2001-2007 from the Penn World Table6.3. By using the panel data model, the long-term trend and the appreciation amplitude of real ex- change rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar are analyzed. It is shown that the appreciation will be a long-term trend of RMB＇s real exchange rate and the real equilibrium exchange rate of RMB will ap- preciate 2.04% per year on average in the next ten years.