基于财政支农支出效用分析的农业GDP数学建模

The Mathematical Modeling of Agricultural GDP Based on Utility Analysis of Fiscal Expenditure on Supporting Agricultural

目前,中国财政支农支出主要存在总量偏低和财政支农资金结构不够合理等问题,要想使中国的农业持续、健康、高速的发展,各级政府除了需要不断增加财政支农力度外,还需要优化财政支农生产性支出和财政支农非生产性支出比例,从而发挥财政支农资金的最大效益。以多元线性回归分析为研究方法,分析支农财政支出与农业GDP增长之间相互关系的密切程度及其变化规律,找到它们之间的关联模式,从而根据此模式做出决策。通过对数据进行定量、定性分析,构建出了农业GDP的影响因素模型;模型的R2为0.905,调整后的R2为0.897,各影响因素变量的t检验值都通过了95%的可信度检验,模型的F值也趋于理性。该模型是以多个变量为主导的多元拟合方程,有较强的可信度,能给政府的财政支农资金分配提供一定的理论指导,对支农财政支出的效益最大化研究有重要的实践意义。

Currently,the low total financial expenditure and unreasonable structure of fund for assisting agriculture were the main problems in China.In order to achieve the growth goal of sustained,healthy and high-speed.Not only should financial support for agriculture be strengthened,but also the productive expenditure and the nonproductive expenditure in the financial expenditure for agriculture should be optimized.In this paper,author analyzed the relationship between fiscal fund for assisting and the growth of agriculture GDP,and discovered their interrelated patterns,which gave ideas for making decision.After quantitative and qualitative analysis of data,the influence factor model of agricultural GDP would be established.The model＇s R 2 was 0.905,adjusted R 2 was 0.897,and F value of this model was rational.This model having a strong credibility was multiple regression analysis leaded by multiple variable.It could provided government with a theoretical guidance especially on allocation of fiscal fund for assisting agriculture.To some extent,it had a critical practical significance when the maximizing the benefits of financial support for agriculture was studied.