基于气候适宜度指数的山东省冬小麦产量动态预报

Dynamic Prediction Method for Wheat Yield Based on Climatic Suitability Index in Shandong Province

利用山东省主产区冬小麦产量资料、生育期内的温度、降水量、日照时数资料,结合冬小麦生理特性,分别构建了冬小麦温度、降水及日照适宜度模型,利用气候适宜度与冬小麦产量的关系,建立基于气候适宜度的冬小麦产量动态预报模型。通过对2008—2010年冬小麦产量进行动态预报,结果表明:3月31日、4月30日和5月31日预报的小麦产量丰歉趋势的预报平均正确率均为100%,单产预报平均准确率分别为95.1%、95.1%和95.4%,预报准确率较高,能够满足业务服务的需要。

By using the data of wheat yield, temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration from individual main producing region, on the basis of physiological characteristics of wheat, the suitability models about temperature, precipitation and sunshine of wheat were constructed. A dynamical prediction model of wheat yield was created based on the relation between climatic suitability and wheat yield. Wheat yield was predicted dynamically with the model from 2008 to 2010, the results indicated that all the average accuracy of the bumper or poor harvest trend for wheat yield were 100% and the average accuracy of the actual yield was 95.1%, 95.1% and 95.4% for March 31th, April 30th and May 31th respectively. The dynamic prediction model has high orediction accuracv and can satisfv the needs of operational services