20年来重大事件对新疆国际旅游业的影响——基于本底趋势线方法分析

Significant events influencing on Xinjiang tourism in the past two decades

以1990-2009年期间新疆所发生的14次重大事件为例,根据本底趋势线理论,采用个案研究法,从事件的大小及其对新疆国际旅游业的影响程度等方面,分析了20年来14次重大事件对新疆国际旅游业的影响。分析结果表明:积极事件对新疆国际旅游业的发展起推动作用,而危机事件则会影响新疆国际旅游业的发展,相对而言,局部的、短期的危机事件对新疆国际旅游业的影响相对较弱,目的地整体性的危机事件则会给新疆国际旅游业带来重创。

During the period 1990-2009 there had occurred 14 events in Xinjiang,In this paper,according to the theory of the ending of the trend line,using case study method,from the size of the 14 events and its impact on the tourism industry in Xinjiang in 20 years were analyzed.The results showed that positive events for the development of tourism in Xinjiang played a catalytic role,while the crisis affected the development of tourism in Xinjiang,relatively speaking,partial,short-term crisis impact on Xinjiang's tourism industry was relatively weak,the events on the purpose would hit the tourism industry in Xinjiang.