黄河上游流域近49a气候变化特征和未来变化趋势分析

Characteristics of climate chang and future trend in the upper Yellow River basin from 1960 to 2008

利用25个气象站近49a月气温、降水资料,运用气候线性趋势分析、滑动平均、距平和R/S分析等方法对黄河上游流域气候变化趋势进行了分析。结果表明:1)近49a黄河上游流域年、季均温呈现逐年上升趋势,其中20世纪90年代以来上升趋势更为明显,且以冬季增温最为突出;2)20世纪60年代降水量较多,之后逐渐减少,2000a以来又显著的增多,且四季变化趋势存在明显差异;3)在此基础上,进行了趋势预测,结果表明:气温、降水量表现出明显的Hurst现象,并且未来气候变化趋势与过去49a气候变化趋势相同。

Using monthly mean temperature and monthly mean precipitation data from 25 weather stations in the upper Yellow River from 1960 to 2008, climatic linear trend, moving average, accum ulated variance and R/ S analysis methods were used to study the climatic changing trend. The main findings were summarized as follows ： （ 1 ） Annual and seasond temperatures presented different degree of increasing trend, since the nineties of the 20th century it was more obvious, and with the trend of the most prominent winter heating in upper Yellow River from 1960 to 2008. （2） Precipitation was more in the 1960s, then gradually reduced, since 2000 it was significantly increased, and there existed significant difference change trend of the four seasons. In spring and summer precipitation changes were less, autumn showed decreasing trends, winter showed increasing trend but there were not statistically significant. （3） Compared with the previous studies, we found temperatures was increasing, precipitation showed reduceing trendy. On this basis, using the R/S analysis the climate trend forecast results showed that temperature and .precipitation. has obvious Hurst phenomenon, and the future climate change trend is same with the past 49 years.