天山北坡井灌区地下水埋深动态变化的驱动力及预测模型研究

The driving forces of groundwater depth dynamic change in the well irrigation area of northern piedmont of Tianshan Mountains and the prediction model

以新疆奇台县地下水监测点的多年水位和相关资料为基础,探讨了地下水水位动态变化的驱动力及其预测模型。结果表明:地下水埋深的年际动态变化与地下水开采量、粮食产量、小麦价格等驱动力均有极其显著的相关关系。相关系数分别为0.9511、0.7519、0.8576。地下水年内埋深变化与农业季节性开采地下水同步,相关性显著。3月地下水位最高,7月份最低。若考虑地下水埋深变化与机井抽水之间的滞后性,其相关系数可达0.8496。人文驱动力对地下水位变化的影响远大于自然驱动力。建立的地下水埋深变化多元回归模型,模拟值精度较高,不仅能较好的反映地下水位的动态变化,也较好地显示了各自然、人文因子与地下水埋深之间的相关关系。

Abstract： Based on the many years＇groundwater monitoring in Xinjiang Qitai and related data, the driving forces of dynamic change of the groundwater level and its prediction model were discussed. The results showed that the interannual variation of groundwater and it＇s driving force such as groundwater exploitation＇s change, grain＇sproduction, wheat prices, are significantly related. Correlation coefficients are 0. 9511,0. 7519,0. 8576. The annual changes of groundwater depth and agricultural seasonal exploitation are synchro and the correlation is significant. groundwater level is the highest in March, the lowest in July. Considering the changes in grnundwaterdepth being lag to drivenwell＇s pumping, the correlation coefficient is up to 0. 8496. The impact of human driving forces in the water table is far greater than the natural factors. The precision of simulation value of establishedmultiple regression model is higher, which is about groundwater depth＇s change. It not only better reflects the dynamic changes in groundwater level, but also better shows the relationship among the natural, cultural factors and groundwater table.