形势千变万化 本质未变不变——2011～2012年国际金融市场分析与判断

The Essence in the Disguise of Turbulent Fluctuations——An Analysis and Judgement about International Financial Market in the Year of 2011 to 2012

总结、梳理2011年国际金融市场的特点和状态,分析2011年国际金融市场变化的主要原因和背景,认为2012年国际金融市场的趋势是:美元汇率贬值加剧,全球股市分化与差异扩大,金价上涨趋势不变,油价上行态势扩大,利率变量随时转变,银行结构分化明显等,人们对2012年的国际金融市场不可掉以轻心,欧元危机、经济危机、投机风险等新危机和新风险将会随时发生和突然恶化,应高度警惕。

With a summary about the characteristics and status of international financial market in 2011 and an analysis upon the main reasons and background for the changes in the international financial market in 2011, the paper holds that the international financial market trend in 2012 will be as follows ： the U. S. dollar exchange rate depreci ation to be aggravated, differentiation and differences for the global stock market to be expanded, the rising gold prices trend remains unchanged, oil prices upward trend to be in expansion, interest rate variables to be altered at any time, bank structures to be differentiated obviously, etc. Such new crises and new risks as the Euro crisis, eco nomic crisis, and speculative risks will happen at any time and be deteriorated suddenly, people should be highly a lert on the international financial market in 2012.