基桩承载力设计值的贝叶斯估计

Bayesian Estimation of Design Values of Bearing Capacity of Foundation Piles

为了解决由于工期、经济效益等因素导致的试桩数较少,从而确定出承载力设计值误差较大这一问题,基于数理统计中的极差理论和贝叶斯统计原理,推导出基桩承载力均值的先验分布为正态分布。同时,利用工程地质资料和静载试验结果,采用线性内插公式,推导出基桩承载力平均值的贝叶斯估计的计算公式。工程实例分析表明,利用本文提出的方法确定的承载力设计值的精度满足工程需要,从而为承载力设计值的确定提供了概率理论依据。

To reduce the problem of rather great errors of the determined design values of bearing capacity of foundation piles caused by the limited trial pile numbers owing to the factors of construction time schedule and economic consideration, the prior distribution of the mean val- ues of the bearing capacity of the piles was deduced to be the normal distribution in accordnace with the range theory and the Bayesian statistic principle in the mathematical statistics. At the same time, the calculation formulation for the mean values of the bearing capacity of the piles of the Bayesian estimation was deducted, using the engineering geologic and static load testing infor- mation and the linear interpolation formula. The analysis of case study demonstrates that the ac- curacy of the design values of the bearing capacity determined by the method presented herewith can satisfy the engineering requirements, therefore providing the probability theory reference for determination of the design values of the bearing capacity.