顾客可能取消订单的MTO企业订单定价策略

Pricing Policy in Make to Order Firms with Order Cancellation

研究了顾客下订单后可能取消订单的按订单生产型企业的定价策略。顾客到达后向企业询问订单报价,如果价格合适,顾客将下订单,否则选择离开。引入了顾客接受概率模型,以最大化订单期望利润为目标,得出了订单最优定价和最大期望利润。通过分析最优定价和最大期望利润对于各参数的敏感性得出:最优定价是系统积压订单数的增函数,是订单取消概率和取消订单赔偿比例的减函数;而最大期望利润是系统积压订单数的减函数,是取消订单赔偿比例的增函数。通过数值分析发现,在顾客确实可能取消订单的背景下,如果决策者在对订单进行定价时不考虑这一可能性,将会减小企业获得的最大期望利润。

This paper considers order pricing policy in make to order firms which customer may cancel order after order placement.Customers arrive to the firm and ask the price.If the price is acceptable,he places the order,otherwise he leaves.The customer acceptance probability model is introduced,and the optimal price which maximizes the expected profit is gained.Then the sensitivities of all parameters are analyzed.The optimal price is increasing with the number of backlog orders,and decreasing with the order cancellation probability and the order cancellation penalty ratio.While the maximal expected profit is decreasing with the number of backlog orders,and increasing with the order cancellation penalty ratio.Through the numerical example,we draw a conclusion that pricing decision without considering the order cancellation will decrease the maximal expected profit in make to order firms.