基于Bayes方法的渤海渔业资源动态评析

A Stock Assessment of Bohai Sea by Bayes-based Pella-Tomlinson Model

研究利用来自于黄渤海渔政局的内部统计资料,采用基于Bayes方法的Pella-Tomlinson模型对渤海渔业资源动态进行了科学评析,评析结果显示:渤海渔业资源的环境容纳量为3.5×106～5.5×106t;渔业资源综合种群的内禀增长率r为0.9～1.6;1979年渔业资源年平均生物量为2 332 523 t,尔后持续上升到1985年的最高值4 251 292 t,1985年以后又持续下降到2002年的最低值2 250 709 t;渤海渔业资源的最大持续产量MSY约为140×104t左右;支持MSY所需的捕捞努力量约为817 771 kW,到1991年捕捞努力量增加到963 564 kW,此时已超过获得MSY时需要的捕捞努力量,即从1991年开始出现捕捞过度。

The fish stock assessment is important groundwork for present-day fish stock management,The report presents a stock assessment of Bohai Sea by Bayes-based Pella-Tomlinson model.All of the data used in this study are from the Bohai-Yellow Sea Fisheries Administration Bureau.The research results show that the carrying capacity K of Bohai Sea is about 3.5×106-5.5×106 t and the Intrinsic growth rate r is about 0.9-1.6;the estimated stock biomass increased from approximately 2332523 t in 1979 to the maximum value 4251292 t in 1985 and then declined to less than 2250709 t in 2002;the estimated MSY is 1400000 t;the estimated effort for achieving MSY is 817771 kW and the effort is 963564 kW in 1991,since then overfishing was started.