气候变化对北京山区华北落叶松林NPP影响研究

Study on the impact of climate change on net primary productivity of Larix principis-rupprechtii forest in Beijing mountain area

应用BIOME-BGC模型模拟估算了1974—2010年间北京百花山华北落叶松林的净初级生产力(NPP),并分析了不同CO2浓度和气候变化情景对NPP的影响。结果表明:模型模拟出的NPP总体上高于样地实际的测定值,平均值相差范围为-13.61%～23.55%,表现出数值的波浪形年际变化,年际变动率达4.65%;相对于温度变化,降水量是控制华北落叶松林NPP年际变化的主要气候因子;华北落叶松林NPP对单独的CO2浓度加倍、降水增加表现出正向响应,而单独的温度增加不利于华北落叶松林NPP的积累;CO2浓度加倍、降水增加和温度增加三因子共同作用有促进华北落叶松NPP增加的作用,各因子之间表现出较强的交互作用。

BIOME-BGC model was used to estimate NPP（Net Primary Productivity） of Larix principis-rupprechtii forest and analysis the effect of climate change and different CO2 concentrations on them in Beijing Mountain Area during the period of 1974—2010.The results showed that： simulated NPP were higher than measured values and the changes of simulated and measured annual total NPP was between-13.61%~23.55% which showing wave-shaped changes with an inter-annual variation rate of 4.65%.Relative to temperature change,precipitation was the key environmental factor controlling the NPP variations.NPP showed positive response to the factor of increased precipitation alone and doubling of CO2 concentration alone,and increased temperature alone was not conducive to NPP accumulation.CO2 concentration double,precipitation increase and temperature increase together could promote NPP with strong interaction.