基于贝叶斯网络的城市燃气管道安全失效概率

Calculate the failure probability of urban gas pipeline based on Bayesian network model

贝叶斯网络对不确定性问题具有强大的处理能力和自我学习更新能力,而贝叶斯网络软件的应用提高了基于贝叶斯网络风险预测的有效性。建立了基于贝叶斯网络的城市燃气管道失效概率分析模型,运用HUGIN和MSBNX软件工具,结合某市天然气管道案例,计算多态故障顶事件安全失效概率和各失效因素的结构重要度。运用BN的推理能力,对造成管道安全失效的自然破坏因素和腐蚀因素分别进行单因素和双因素修正。修正后的贝叶斯网络模型更加符合实际,对提高城市燃气管道安全失效定量分析的系统性、预见性和准确性具有更好的现实意义,也充分显示了贝叶斯网络在处理复杂系统风险分析中独特的优越性和适用性。

Bayesian network has a powerful processing capacity and the capacity in self-learning and upgrading on the uncertain problems.Application of Bayesian network software can improve the effectiveness of risk prediction related to the network.In a urban gas pipeline case,Bayesian network-based model for the failure probability of urban gas pipeline is built to calculate the failure probability of polymorphism top event and structural importance containing failure factors by HUGIN and MSBNX software tools.By means of BN's reasoning ability,single-factor and two-factor corrections on the natural destruction factor and corrosion factor which cause failure of pipeline are respectively given.Corrected Bayesian network model is more able to meet the actual conditions,which allows for better practical significance in improving the systematicness,predictability and accuracy in failure quantitative analysis of urban gas pipeline,and also reflects the unique advantage and applicability of the Bayesian network in dealing with complex system risk analysis.