高温对武汉市居民死亡的影响

Impacts of High Temperature on Death in Wuhan

目的探讨极端高温对武汉市居民死亡的影响。方法通过描述武汉市2003年夏季日最高气温与日死亡数的时间序列,对高温期和非高温期的平均日死亡数进行了比较,分析了夏季日最高气温与逐日死亡率的关系。结果2003年夏季高温期有明显的死亡高峰,高温期日平均总死亡数、60岁及以上老年人、心血管疾病和呼吸系统疾病日平均死亡数显著高于非高温期。高温期超额死亡人数为505人,占该年夏季总死亡数的11.4%。死亡率明显增加的日最高气温临界值是36℃,单位温度死亡危险度为3.995/100万。结论极端高温天气可增加2003年武汉市居民死亡风险,尤其是老年人及患有循环系统和呼吸系统疾病等慢性病者。

Objective To explore the impacts of high temperature on death in Wuhan. Methods The time series of maximum daily temperature and daily death number were described, the average daily death in consecutive high temperature periods was compared with that in non consecutive high temperature periods, and the relationship between daily maximum temperature and daily mortality in summer was analyzed. Results There was a death peak during the consecutive high temperature periods in 2003 summer. The average daily death numbers of total population, the old aged 60 years or over and those with cardiovascular and respiratory system diseases were obviously higher in consecutive high temperature periods than usual. The excess death number was 505 in that consecutive high temperature periods and it accounted for 11.4% of the total death number in summer, 2003. The temperature above which the daily mortality was obviously increased with the temperature increasing was 36℃ in Wuhan, and the unit temperature risk of mortality was 3.995 per million. Conclusion The extreme high temperature may obviously increase the death risk in Wuhan, especially for the old and those with circulatory or respiratory diseases.