石油价格冲击与经济波动风险最小化的货币供应机制分析

Oil Price Shocks and Economic Volatility Risk Minimization Based Analysis of Money Supply Mechanism

本文通过构建一个包含石油价格冲击的DSGE模型,基于经济波动风险的最小化,研究了石油价格冲击对中国货币供应机制的影响。在模型结构参数贝叶斯估计的基础上,通过货币政策前沿的比较分析,回答了中国货币供应机制是否应该对石油价格冲击做出反应以及应该如何反应的政策问题。研究结果表明,中国当前的货币供应机制并没有对石油价格冲击做出显著的反应,但为了减小经济波动的风险,中国的货币供应机制在对产出增长和通货膨胀反应的同时,对石油价格冲击做出反应具有必要性。

This paper constructs a DSGE model to investigate the issue of how oil price shocks impact on China＇s money supply mechanism based on economic volatility risk minimization. Firstly, we use Bayesian method to estimate parameters, and then we compare monetary policy frontiers to find out whether China;s money supply mechanism should and how to respond to oil price shocks. The results indicate that China＇s money supply doesn＇t respond to oil price shocks. However, policy frontiers provide strong sup- port for the rule in which money supply mechanism responds to the oil prices as well as inflation and output growth for the sake of economic volatility minimization.