基于投入产出系数矩阵的周期增长模型

A Cyclic Growth Model Based on Input-Output Coefficient Matrix

在Goodwin和Brody周期增长理论的基础上,本文构造了基于投入产出系数矩阵的开放经济非线性经济周期增长模型,并在简化情况下,利用42部门投入产出表的基础数据,对中国经济增长的周期谱进行了分析。结果表明,模型对中国经济周期的结论是适当的和稳健的。在短周期谱中,中国经济1978年以来主要表现出6年左右的周期,且数据表明,主要周期向10年左右加长。

On the basis of cyclic growth theory of Richard Goodwin and Andrew Brody, this paper constructs a nonlinear cyclic growth model of an open economy with an input-output coefficient matrix. The periodic frequency spectrums of Chinese economic growth are calculated with a simplified form of that model based on the 42 sector input-output tables of China. The results show that the model is appropriate and robust to China economy＇s cycles. The data unveils that Chinese economy performs cyclic motions mainly in about 6 year wave length since 1978 and is extending to about 10 years.