管理者风险态度对系统能力受损后的应急采购决策影响研究

The Influence of Manager's Risk Attitude to Procurement Decision When System's Capacity Was Partially Injured

通信、电力和石化等大型运作系统核心能力受损后的应急期间内,管理者并非遵循风险规避的准则进行决策,为降低应急管理的成本,管理者是否应该采取激进或者保守的态度?为验证该观点,本文在文献[3]研究的基础上进行了拓展,在伙伴企业应急期间提供快速和正常两种能力支援的情境下,将管理者风险态度引入能力应急采购的决策问题。通过理论证明和数值仿真,本文得到了3个有益的应急管理结论:管理者的风险态度并不是越激进越好,"极端事件下采取双源供应"并非最优选择,应急期间管理者应首要考虑获得伙伴企业的能力恢复技术支援。

Decision-makers of some large-scaled operation system, such as communication, power grid and petrol-chemic plants, seldom obey the decision rule of ＂risk aversion＂ while the critical capacities are par- tially injured by unexpected events. Thus, for the aim to cut down the disruption cost, should decision maker take aggressive or conservative risk attitude while in decsioning？ In order to validate this point of view, we make the extension research of reference [-3], further consider two kinds of capacity support, which regular and expedite modes, and also the decision maker＇s risk attitude factor when splitting the ca- pacity orders. Through theoretic and numerical analysis, we find 3 interesting managerial insights： First, decision maker＇ risk attitude is not always ＂the more aggressive the better＂; Second, ＂bi-sourcing under extreme events＂ is not the optimal choice, Third, which does most contribution to cut down the disruption price is, decision maker should do best to obtain the recovery technique support from partnership during the disruption period.