中国外汇资本流动结构对实际有效汇率影响的实证研究

An Empirical Study about the Effects of the Structure of Foreign Exchange Capital Flows on the REER in China

实际有效汇率(REER)是衡量一国国际竞争力的重要指标,不同的资本流动结构可能会对REER产生不同影响。本文分析了两大类外汇流动和资本流动对REER的作用机制,并对中国的情况进行实证检验。结果发现,加总资本流动对人民币REER升值产生微弱的负影响,外商直接投资导致REER较为显著的升值效应,投资收益和私人部门汇款对REER的升值效应较强。在此基础上,本文建议应该继续加大引进那些高科技的外商直接投资,并积极鼓励其进口,既有助于中国国际竞争力的提高,也有助于中国经常账户的平衡;同时应尽快建立一套完善的监测体系,加强对跨境资金流动的监督管理。

Real effective exchange rate （REER）is an important symbol of a country＇s international competitiveness. Different kinds of capital flows may have different effects on REER. This paper analyzes the mechanics of such effects, and makes an empirical analysis on REER of RMB. The results show that aggregative capital flows have negative effect on REER of RMB, but foreign direct investments have a positive effect on the REER signif- icantly, while investment income and private remittances lead to REER appreciation. On the basis of these resuits, the paper suggests that FDI with high-technology should be increased and their imports should be encouraged, which helps to improve our competitiveness and balance the current account. Meanwhile, the supervision systems should be improved to control and manage cross-board Capital flows.