基于Bass模型的职业技能大赛引领扩散数学模型研究

Research on Occupation Skill Competition Leading the Diffusion Mathematical Model Based on the Bass Model

借鉴技术创新扩散的Bass模型,建立职业技能大赛创新扩散数学模型,分析模型结构与参数估计方法。以四届全国职业技能大赛的数据为基础,给出了模型实例,并指出元胞自动机与复杂网络方法也是建立技能大赛创新扩散模型的路径。

Based on the diffusion of technological innovation Bass model,the article establishes occupation skill competition of innovation diffusion mathematical model,and analyzes model and the parameter estimation method.On the basis of the data in the fourth national occupation skill competition,a model instance is offered.And the article points out that the cellular automata and complex network methods can also build innovation diffusion path for skills competition models.