我国宏观投资效率及国际比较研究——基于1980-2010年的数据

China’s Macro Investment Efficiency and International Comparison Study——Based on the Data from 1980 to 2010

本文从"资本—产出比率"这一视角,运用1980—2010年间的相关数据,考察了我国、印度和美国近三十多年来宏观投资效率的变动情况。从总体上看,我国宏观投资效率在20世纪80年代和90年代是相对较高,进入新世纪以来,投资效率出现下降趋势,并且蕴涵一定程度的金融风险,印度和美国也同样出现投资效率下降趋势;仅仅从数值上来看,三十多年来,中国和印度宏观投资效率并无绝对高下之分,并且中国的宏观投资效率也远远高于美国,但综合考虑投资率和经济增长率之后,印度和美国的宏观投资效率都略高于中国。因此,无论是印度经济发展模式还是美国经济发展模式,都有值得我国经济发展过程中学习和借鉴的地方。

From the perspective of ＂Capital-Output Ratio＂, this paper using the related data from 1980 to 2010, analyzed the macro investment efficiency and its change trend in recent 30 years between China, India and the United States. Generally speaking, China’s macro investment efficiency in 1980s and 90s was relatively high, but enter the new century , the investment efficiency becomes down turn and also contains some financial risks. India and the United States also appear investment efficiency down trend. Just from the numerical perspective, in the past 30 years, China and India’s macro investment efficiency are almost the same, and China’s investment efficiency also far higher than the United States’. But after a comprehensively consideration of the investment ratio and the economic growth, India and the United States have slightly higher macro investment efficiency than that of China. Therefore, both India’s economic development mode and the United States’ economic development pattern are worth our learning and reference in the process of China’s economic development.