备战伦敦奥运会中国游泳男子项目实力分析与成绩预测

Strength Analysis and Forecast Results of Men's Events in Swimming in London Olympics

本文立足于分析我国游泳男子项目的发展现状,用数理统计法、灰色模型分析法等研究方法对1996年以来的奥运会游泳男子项目比赛成绩和中国游泳历年最好成绩进行分析,预测了在2012年伦敦奥运会游泳比赛中我国男子重点单项比赛成绩和对应的世界最好成绩,并分析了当前我国游泳男子项目实力现状。

This paper based on the analysis of recent development in China and international games,It reseraches the best results by using the grey theory,and discusses the model analysis method in the trend of the development of the swimming performance.The paper predicates swimmers each single best result in 2012 Olympic Games.At the same time,it probes into the single best performance from 1996 to 2011 in China.Finally,it studied and forecast Chinese team performance in 2012 and seeks for the advantage and potentials with the application of the theory of gray prediction.