赤峰地区近50a气候变化诊断分析

Diagnostic Analysis on the Climatic Change of Chifeng in Recent 50 Years

利用线性回归、累积距平和多项式回归法,对赤峰地区1951—1990年12个气象台站的月、季、年平均气温、最高气温、最低气温序列进行连续性变化趋势分析,确定该区域的气候变化趋势。应用Mann-Kendall法和滑动t检验法检验气温序列变化的不连续性,确定突变时间。结果表明:赤峰地区12个月的平均气温均有升温趋势,增温幅度从0.56℃/10a到0.15℃/10a,其中2月份最强。季节增温最显著的是冬季,其次是秋季和春季,夏季最弱。年平均气温增温率是0.28℃/10a,1988年是变暖的第一年,突变时间在1993年;年平均最低气温增温率是0.29℃/10a,1988年是变暖的第一年,突变时间在1988年;年平均最高气温增温率是0.26℃/10a,1993年是变暖的第一年,突变时间在1993—1996年附近;平均最低气温和最高气温的变暖时间具有不对称性。

By Using the methods of linear regression analysis, accumulated variance analysis and multinomial regression analysis, the continuity variation tendency of sequence of monthly, quarterly, annum mean temperature, maximum and lowest air temperature of 12 meteorological stations were analyzed in Chifeng Area from 1951 to 2008 years, the climatic variation trends was confirmed. The discontinuity of temperature sequence variation was tested by slipping t-test and Mann-Kendall methods to confirm mutation time. The results showed that monthly mean air temperature of 12 month had a warming trend, the range was from 0.56~C/ 10a to 0.15℃/ 10a, the strongest wanning trends was on Eebruary. In four seasons, the most prominent season of warming was winter and the next were autumn and spring, and tile summer was weakest. The warming rate of annual mean temperature, was 0.28℃/10a.The first warming year was in 1988, and abrupt time was in 1993 years. Increasing great of annual mean lowest temperature was 0.29℃/10a. The first warming trend year was in 1988a, and abrupt warming was in 1993 years.Increasing great of annual Inean maximumtemperature was 0.26℃/10a. The first warming trend year was in 1993 years, and abrupt time was in 1993-1996 years. They were asymmety.