察右中旗近50a气候变化特征分析

Analysis on the Characteristic of Climatic Change in Recent 30 Years in Qahar Right Wing Middle Banner

利用察右中旗1961—2010年的地面观测资料,对气温和降水的气候平均值特征和变化趋势进行了统计分析,并根据统计结果探讨引起当地气候变化的可能原因。在此基础上,还对旱涝情况进行了分析。分析表明:⑴近50a来察右中旗的年平均气温呈明显的上升趋势,1989年后上升幅度达0.67℃。⑵降水量季节分布不均匀,近50a来降水总量有减少的趋势,减幅明显,达14mm。年降水总量在年际之间差别较大,最多的年份可为最少的年份的2~3倍,旱年数多于涝年。⑶全球的气候变化和当地生态的人为改变是造成气温升高的可能因素。

Based on the surface observation data from 1961 to 2000 in Qahar Right Wing Middle League, the characteristic and variation tendency of climate mean value of air temperature and precipitation was analyzed statistically, also according the statistical result, the possible cause that caused local climate change was discussed. With the above analysis, the draught and flood condition was also analyzed. The results showed that the annual average temperature increased obviously in recent 50 years in Qahar Right Wing Middle League, the ascensional range was 0.67~C after 1989 years, the precipitation distribution was nonuniform in season, the tendency of total precipitation was decreasing in recent 50 years, the reduced range was obvious with 14mm, the difference of total annual precipitation was biggish in inter-annual, with the maximum was 2-3 times on the minimum, draught years were more than flood years, the global climatic changes and the local ecological changes were the main causes of the air temperature incr^n~inc,