鄂尔多斯市糜黍产量风险评估

The Risk Evaluation of Prosomillet Output in Erdos

糜黍生育期短,具有其他作物少有的耐旱、耐瘠薄、耐风沙、耐盐碱等特性,也是很好晚田备荒作物。以历年减产率指标、减产率变异系数、减产率概率指标和综合风险指数等为评估标准,结合小网格资源推算的方法,分析了鄂尔多斯市糜黍产量风险规律。同时对影响糜黍产量波动的风险成因进行综合评述,结果为气象灾害的频繁发生是引起糜黍产量波动的主要因子之一。

Theprosomillet is one of the crops which has long history in Erdos.It has the character of short growth period, drought tolerance, barren resistance, endurance of wind and dust, saline tolerance, etc. it is also a late season crop against famine. In accordance with the evaluation eriterious such as the output reduction rate in the past years, the variation coefficient and the probability of output reduetion rate, and the synthesize risk, index in this paper analyses the risk production law of prosomillet in Erdos with the method of small grid resource calculation. Moreover, it analyses the factors that affect the output of Broomcorn millet, and it is shown that the frequent occurrence of meteorological disasters is one of the main factors that cause the output fluctuation of prosomillet.