包头市城市生态环境质量动态变化研究

DYNAMIC CHANGES OF QUALITY ON THE URBAN ECOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENT IN BAOTOU CITY

本文以包头市为研究对象,运用层次分析法从自然环境、经济环境、社会环境3个方面构建指标体系,建立研究模型,得到包头市城市生态环境质量自1992年～2006年15a的综合指数,数据表明1992年～2006年包头市城市生态环境质量总体水平较低。在此数据基础上,运用灰色系统预测模型和相应检验方法,对2007年～2016年的城市生态环境综合指数进行了预测,经预测,2007年～2016年,城市生态环境综合指数将会一直提高,2014年～2016年,城市生态环境质量将达到Ⅰ级,但这是相对于1992年～2006年指标体系的标准值而言。今后随着形势的发展,评价指标体系、标准值和预测体系也要不断完善。

Based on the Baotou City as the research object,by using the analytic hierarchy process from the natural environment,economic and social environment three aspects,constructing index system,establish research model of Baotou city ecological environment quality since 1992～2006.The data show that the overall level of urban ecological environmental quality is low from 1992 to 2006.Based on the composite index data,applying the grey forecasting model and the relevant inspection method,the urban ecological environment composite index is forecasted from 2007 to 2016.According to the data,2007 ~ 2016,urban ecological environment comprehensive index Will have been improving.2014 ~ 2016,the urban ecological environment quality will reach Ⅰ level,but this is relative to the 1992 ~ 2006 index system for standard.With the development of the situation in the future,the evaluation index system,values and rediction system will be improved.