中国农村金融发展与农产品对外贸易研究——1982～2009年数据的协整检验和格兰杰因果分析

Rural Financial Development and Foreign Trade of Agricultural Products in China——The Co-integration Test and Granger Causality Test Based on the Data from 1982 to 2009

将农村金融"要素"引入生产函数,运用协整检验和格兰杰因果分析方法,实证1982～2009年中国农业贷款、保险发展水平与农产品出口、进口和进出口依存度的关系。结果显示:在长期关系上,农业贷款、保险及财政支农对农产品对外贸易均具正向影响。在短期关系上,农业贷款对农产品进口和出口影响不明显,但抑制滞后二期的农产品进出口;农业保险对农产品出口和进出口影响不明显,但抑制滞后二期的农产品进口。在因果关系上,农业贷款与农产品出口、进口和进出口均存在双向因果关系,且农业贷款对农产品对外贸易极为重要;而农业保险与农产品对外贸易并不存在任何单向或双向因果关系。

The rural finance is introduced into the production function framework in order to demonstrate the relationship between agricultural loan,insurance development and foreign trade of agricultural products over the period of 1982-2009 by applying Co-integration Test and Causality Relationship Test.The results indicate that agricultural loans,insurances and fiscal support all have a positive effect on the foreign trade of agricultural products in the long run;the effect of agricultural loans is much more powerful than insurances;the agricultural loans and the insurances also have stronger effects on the export of agricultural products than the import and the export of agricultural products affected by the fiscal support,but each of their effects on the import of agricultural loans is weaker than the fiscal support;as for the effect on the import-export of agricultural products,the agricultural loans are stronger than the fiscal support while the insurances are opposite to the agricultural loans;In the short run,the agricultural loans have no obvious effects on the import and export of agricultural products,but there are inhibitory effects on the import-export in the second-lag-phase;and the agricultural insurances have no obvious effects on the export and the import-export of agricultural products,while there are inhibitory effects on the import of agricultural products in the second-lag-phase.From the viewpoint of causality,the results show that two-way Granger causality lies in the agricultural loans,export and import of agricultural products and the foreign trade of agricultural products;the agricultural loans are of importance in the growth of the foreign trade of agricultural products;and,furthermore,the two-way Granger causality does not lie between the agricultural insurances and the foreign trade of agricultural products.Some policy suggestions are made based on the analytic results of the study.