中线南水北调对湖北汉江中下游经济社会影响的SD分析

System Dynamics Analysis on the Effect of Midline of South-to-North Water Transfer Project on Economic and Social of the Middle and lower Reaches of Hanjiang River on Hubei Province

南水北调中线工程从丹江口水库引水,在解决北方地区缺水问题的同时,改变了汉江中下游水资源供求关系,襄樊市毗邻丹江口,经济社会发展受到重要影响。为促进襄樊市经济、社会协调发展,运用系统动力学方法及Vens i mPLE建模功能构建经济、社会、水资源系统仿真模型,选择最优方案,将影响和损失降到最低限度。最终得出:方案4节水治污兼"引丹济汉"调入水源相结合方案为最优方案,但仍存在较大用水缺口,需要采取补偿措施。

Solving the problem of water shortage in north area,Mid-route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project from Danjiangkou reservoir diversion changed water resources supply-demand relationship in Jianghan downstream.Xiangfan city,adjacent to Danjiangkou,the economic and social development has been an important influence.To promote Xiangfan city ＇s economy and society coordinate development,using a system kinetic method and Vensim PLE model to construct economy,society and water resources system simulation model and choose the best program to minimize the influence and the loss.Finally obtains： scheme 4 water-saving and pollution control and ＂diverse Dan into Han＂ combination as optimal scheme,but there are still large water gap,so we need to take compensatory measures.