中国制造业能源需求替代弹性的动态估计

Dynamic Estimation on Inter-Fuel Substitution Elasticity in China's Manufacturing Sector

基于一个动态方程组,系统研究了中国制造业在行业快速发展和能源价格高企的时期内不同能源需求的替代性,发现制造业在短期只能将实际能源消费量调整至长期理想最优水平的1/2。计算了短期和长期的石油产品、煤炭和电力3种能源之间的需求弹性和替代弹性。结果表明,虽然在短期内制造业对石油产品需求缺乏弹性,但是在长期制造业对石油产品价格的变化相当敏感,对石油产品需求并非具有刚性。而制造业对电力和煤炭的需求即使在长期也是缺乏弹性的。计算的总能源需求弹性对石油价格为正,对煤炭和电力价格为负,因此,如果政策目标是降低制造业的总能源需求量,那么应当适当放开煤炭和电力价格,而控制石油价格的上涨。同时还发现,当石油价格上涨时,煤炭和电力在短期和长期都能对石油产品的消费产生巨大的替代作用,但是煤炭和电力之间的相互替代作用比较弱。

Based on a system of dynamic equations, the authors of this paper study the inter-fuel substitution of China＇ s manufacturing sector in a period when the sector develops rapidly and energy prices are skyrocketing. It is found that in the short run the manufacturing sector can only adjust the actual energy consumption to a half of the long run desired consumption. The demand elasticity and substitution elasticity are calculated for substitutions between the petroleum, coal, and electricity both in the short run and the long run. The results suggest that the sector has substantial responsiveness to petroleum prices in the long run, though in the short run the petroleum demand is inelastic. In contrast, the demand for coal and electricity is unresponsive even in the long run. The aggregated energy demand elasticity with respect to coal and electricity prices is negative, but positive to petroleum price. Therefore regulators could dampen the petroleum price while deregulating the coal and electricity prices in order to reduce the aggregate energy demand in the sector. It is also discovered that the sector could substitute coal and electricity for petroleum when the latter＇s price increases both in the short run and the long run. However, the substitution effects between coal and electricity are relatively weak.