币值稳定与人民币国际化

The Stability of the Value of the Currency and the Internationalization of RMB

现行国际货币体系存在根本性失衡,无法充分完成国际贸易和投资的功能,导致全球失衡和一系列的金融和经济危机,这是人民币国际化的大背景。人民币的升值预期可以提高人民币在国际上的接受程度,但是人民币长期稳定的国际化依赖于自身币值的稳定。在贸易结算和国际直接投资中推广使用人民币的试验,可以为人民币国际化积累经验,但是不能替代促进币值稳定的基础性改革,也不能代替寻找稳定汇率和通货膨胀的政策机制。总之,人民币国际化与否,应基于具体的利弊分析,而不是顺应所谓的全球化趋势。币值稳定对于人民币真正成为国际货币的重要性不应低估。

RMB internationalization occurs when the underlying imbalance of the existing international monetary system reveals itself via global imbalances and a series of financial economic crises.The existing USD-based international monetary system cannot fully fulfill the function of international trade and investment anymore.The expectation of RMB appreciation helps the global acceptance of RMB.However in the long run,RMB internationalization depends on the stability of its value.To use RMB in trade settlement and FDI is a helpful step.However,it cannot substitute for fundamental reforms and policies that promote the stability of the value of RMB.In conclusion,we need more detailed analysis in deciding whether we should promote RMB internationalization,and the importance of the stability of RMB should not be underestimated.