从战略高度认识和推进天然气替代交通运输燃料

Recognition and promotion of natural gas as an alternative vehicle fuel in China from strategic perspective

交通运输能源的低碳多元化是当前中国抑制石油对外依存度过快攀升的紧迫需要。为此,通过分析不同交通运输替代燃料的发展趋势,指出在天然气(LNG/CNG)、电、生物质和煤基燃料3大类交通运输燃料替代物中,LNG和CNG技术最成熟、成本最低、竞争力最强(天然气作为发动机燃料具有单位热值最高、尾气排放最少、CO2排放量仅为同热值汽柴油排放量的3/4的优点,有利于改善大气质量),且LNG和CNG的供应具有保障性(至少到2030年,中国将有进口LNG、非常规天然气和小气田就地液化的LNG、管网天然气液化的LNG、城市燃气门站或调压站液化的LNG等4种LNG供应源,足以保障到2030年有1 000×108 m3/a的LNG和CNG供应量),价格较低且比较稳定。因此,推进天然气汽车(LNGV和CNGV)在中国的发展,加速其替代目前占中国交通运输能源93%、占原油总耗量60%的汽柴油车的进程,对保障国家战略安全具有极其重要的意义。结论认为,政府及早制定相关规划、标准、法律法规是推进天然气替代交通运输燃料发展的关键。

Lower carbon and more alternative vehicle fuels are urgently needed for China to restrain the sharp rise in oil dependency due to the rapidly developing economy.In view of this,this paper first analyzes the developing trend of different alternative vehicle fuels such as LNG/CNG,electricity,biomass and coal-based fuels.Through a comparison study,LNG/CNG is regarded as the most economical and competitive alternative vehicle fuel.Besides its mature technology,LNG/CNG has benefits over the other alternative fuels,for example,the highest caloric value per unit and the lowest exhaust emission,and its CO2 emission is only 3/4 of that in the case of using gasoline and diesel oil as the vehicle fuel.The most important thing is that LNG/CNG will be completely obtained in low cost and steady supply.As predicted,the potential need of LNG/CNG will be kept at a level of 1000×108 m3 per year till 2030,which will be guaranteed by at least four reliable sources including the imported LNG,unconventional gas and LNG at small gas fields,pipeline gas,and urban fuel gas stations or regulator stations.Under the present situation that the gasoline and diesel oil as 93% of vehicle fuels still accounts for 60% of the total crude oil consumption,LNG/CNG as an alternative vehicle fuel is of great significance to ensuring strategic safety in China.In the end,this paper also suggests that the related schemes,standards,laws and regulations should be formulated by the government as early as possible,which is the key to the promotion of utilizing natural gas as an alternative vehicle fuel in China.