郑汴都市区产业CO_2排放演变机理及脱钩分析

Evolution Mechanisms of Industrial CO_2 Emissions and Its Decoupling Analysis in Zhengzhou-Kaifeng Metropolitan Area

探索都市区产业CO2排放变化的驱动机制,因地制宜地制定减排政策,对低碳城市与经济发展具有重要意义。本文将都市区的CO2排放源分成农业、工业、建筑业、交通运输业、商业和居民等6个部门的能源消费,并将工业CO2排放进一步细分为34种产业的能源消费。基于2000-2009年能源消费数据,构建CO2测算模型,核算了各部门各产业范畴1(仅指能源燃烧)与范畴2的CO2排放。运用LMDI方法对2000-2009年间不同层级产业的CO2排放变化机理进行研究,采用脱钩指数分析郑汴都市区产业低碳发展的类型与方向。结果发现:CO2排放结构的变化呈现不同的阶段性、部门性和区域性特征;CO2排放变化是在强度(技术)效应、结构效应与规模效应共同作用下发生的,经济规模与要素投入的外生经济增长方式是CO2排放变化主要的正向驱动因素,碳排放强度和劳动密集程度是主要的负向驱动因素,劳动生产率与产业结构的变动则起双向作用,而影响居民消费CO2排放的各因素贡献相对较小;CO2排放与经济发展的脱钩状态决定了产业调整升级的方向与程度;产业结构调整对CO2排放的贡献及脱钩程度的确定需要进一步探讨。

The conthct between the great demand of energy in the process of rapid urbanization and industrial- ization and the CO2-abate pressure under the condition of global warming has become one of the most promi- nent loci in man-land territorial system. Exploring evolution mechanisms of industrial CO2 emissions in Zheng- zhou-Kaifeng metropolitan area and taking appropriate measures are significant for the theoretical and practical development of low-carbon city and low-carbon economy. Sources of CO2 emissions from metropolitan areas are divided into six categories, consisting of agricultural, industrial, commercial and residential energy consump- tion, as well as construction and transportation energy consumption. Industrial CO2 emissions are further subdi- vided into 34 kinds of industrial energy consumption. Based on the 2000-2009 Energy consumption data, a CO2 estimation model to account for CO2 emissions in scope 1 （only refer to energy combustion） and scope 2 was constructed in this paper. Evolution mechanisms of CO2 emissions between 2000 and 2009 of six units and 34kinds of industries were also researched by using LMDI methods. The low-carbon types and low-carbon direc- tions of industrial development are analyzed by decoupling the index in Zhengzhou-Kaifeng metropolitan area. The conclusions can be drawn as follows. （1） The changes of CO2 emissions show different sectoral and region- al characteristics in various stages, due to the adjustment to CO2 emissions structure. （2） The changes of CO2 emissions took place in the interaction of factors including intensity （technical） effects, structural effects and scale effects of economies. The main reasons for CO2 emissions increase are the rapid growth of economies of scale and the exogenous pattern of economic development by inputting factors. The residential sector has less contribution than production sectors to CO2 emissions, while the gap is gradually narrowing. （3） The decoupling between CO2 emissions and the economic development determines the direction and the degree of industrial re- structuring and upgrading. （4） Further studies should be conducted on the contribution of industrial restructuring to CO2 emissions and the degree of decoupling.