新疆碳排放影响因素分析与政策建议

Empirical Study and Decomposition Model Analysis of Carbon Emissions in Xinjiang

气候变化和二氧化碳减排问题已引起全世界的关注。本文运用岭回归分析1995-2008年新疆碳排放与人口、经济、技术间的关系,并进一步探讨了产业结构和主导产业对碳排放的影响,以寻找减排的技术路线和对策,推动区域低碳经济的发展。结果表明:①不合理的经济结构和人口增长对碳排放有显著的推动作用,技术进步虽在一定程度上缓解了碳排放,但影响甚微;②新疆过分依赖自然资源的经济增长方式和以第二产业为主的经济结构是导致温室气体排放量增加的主要原因;③研究期间,新疆的主导产业均为以石油天然气开采、石油化工、煤化工为主的重工业,但其在工业总产值的比重却有较大提升,导致对能源的消耗急剧增加。未来在全球化背景下,新疆应转变经济增长模式,加大生态保护力度,更多地依靠科技创新、技术进步和制度的改进,大力发展低碳产业。

Climate change and carbon dioxide emissions have attracted worldwide attention. At the 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, China announced its target of CO： emission reduction, namely, by 2020 the amount of CO2 emission per output unit （GDP） in China will drop by 40%-45% compared to that in 2005, and the target will be incorporated into China＇s long term socio-economic planning. Based on ex- isting literature and research, in this paper, we first examine the impacts of the population, economy and technol- ogy on carbon emissions, which are analyzed econometrically with the relationship between leading industries and the industrial structure of carbon emissions in Xinjiang from 1995 to 2008 through the ridge regressionmethod, in order to find the technology roadmap and strategies of emission reduction to promote the develop- ment of regional low-carbon economy. The results are shown as follows. （1） The economic structure and the pop- ulation scale have more explanatory impacts on the carbon emissions, and although the impacts of technology has to some extent alleviated the carbon dioxide emissions, the effect is little. （2） The present economic develop- ment pattern mainly depends on energy and the structural expansion of secondary industry which, however, have strong impacts on the increase of carbon emissions. （3） During the period of study, leading industries of Xinji- ang all belong to the heavy industry which focused on oil and gas exploration, petrochemical, and coal chemical industry. In addition, its share in the total industrial output value has largely increased, leading to a sharp in- crease in energy consumption. However, under the background of globalization, our economic growth should de- pend more on technological improvement, scientific and institutional innovation, and efforts to protect and im- prove the ecological environment.