系统动力学方法在慢性病管理中的应用

Application of System Dynamics on Chronic Disease Management

目的探索系统动力学理论与方法应用于我国慢性病管理评价的可行性,构建慢性病健康管理机制与评价的系统动力学逻辑模型。方法运用文献分析、系统思考和系统动力学建模方法分析糖尿病自然进程与糖尿病管理机制及其效应之间的逻辑关系,构建系统动力学逻辑模型。结果初步构建了糖尿病管理机制系统动力学逻辑模型。结论系统动力学理论和方法可以应用于我国慢性病管理评价,且具有独特的方法学优势。

Objective To explore the application of System Dynamics modeling methods on chronic disease management in China. And to establish causal loops model of chronic disease management mechanism. Methods Literature analysis, systems thinking and system dynamics modeling methods were used to analyze the progression of diabetes mellitus,diabetes mellitus management mechanism and its effects, also the relationships of them. Results The causal loops model of diabetes mellitus management mechanism was built. Conclusions The theory and methods of system dynamics can be used in chronic disease management evaluation of China, and it has exceptional superiority.