摘要
A RBC model is built to study labor transfer fluctuation in China. Then an empirical study of labor transfer between 1978 and 2009 is conducted mainly to explore the impacts of technology shocks on the labor transfer in China. The study has several main findings. Firstly China's labor transfer has obvious cyclical fluctuation, and it is pro-cyclical with output. Secondly with the improved RBC model, the variance of China's cyclical fluctuation can be mainly explained by technology shocks, and especially over half of fluctuation of labor transfer can be explained by it. Thirdly technology shocks have a positive effect on outputs, consumptions, investments and labor transfer, but it has a negative effect on the employment.
Abstract： A RBC model is built to study labor transfer fluctuation in China. Then an empirical study of labor transfer between 1978 and 2009 is conducted mainly to explore the impacts of technology shocks on the labor transfer in China. The study has several main findings. Firstly China＇s labor transfer has obvious cyclical fluctuation, and it is pro-cyclical with output.
