人民币国际化进程中的货币替代与反向货币替代研究

Research on Currency Substitution and Anti-currency Substitution in the Process of RMB Internationalization

自2008年金融危机以来,人民币国际化问题开始得到国内外的高度关注,中国也采取了一系列的积极行动加快推进人民币国际化。然而,人民币国际化不仅仅是单纯的货币兑换和流通条件的改变,而是一项涉及经济金融各个领域的综合性改革,在推进人民币国际化的进程中,任何一个环节的不匹配都有可能引致巨大的经济金融风险,特别是其中潜在的大规模的货币替代、反向货币替代风险,更易导致人民币国际化进程的逆转,必须加以重点关注并积极进行风险的防范和控制。文章分析了资本大规模流动的理论模型,在此基础上分析了人民币国际化引发货币替代、反向货币替代的形成路径,提出了在人民币国际化进程中防范货币替代、反向货币替代风险的政策建议。

Since the 2008 financial crisis,people pay more attention on the issue of RMB internationalization,and China be gins to take a series of positive actions to accelerate the process of RMB internationalization.However,RMB internationaliza tion is not merely a course of currency exchange and the change of flow conditions,but a comprehensive reform of economic and financial fields.In the process of RMB internationalization,it will lead to huge economic and financial risks if any link does not match,especially the potential large-scale risks of currency substitution and anti-currency substitution.And it will lead to the reversal of the process of RMB internationalization easily.Therefore,we must pay more attention on it and take ac tions to prevent it.The paper analyzes the model of capital flow,then the paper analyzes the formation path that currency sub stitution and anti-currency substitution which are caused by RMB internationalization.Finally,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions to prevent the risk of currency substitution and anti-currency substitution.